Ad Spend Declines in 2025: Why It’s Happening and How Publishers Can Stay Resilient

It’s been a turbulent year for the advertising industry. The IAB recently lowered its U.S. ad spend growth forecast for 2025 from 7.3% to 5.7%, citing “macroeconomic pressures” and the lingering effects of tariffs imposed earlier this year. While social, retail media, and CTV are still expected to see double-digit growth, the overall picture is one of cautious spending and tighter budgets.

What’s Behind the Slowdown

Ongoing trade tensions and newly adjusted tariffs have continued to drive up the cost of imported goods. While some of these higher costs are being passed on to consumers, many brands are absorbing them internally, and that squeeze is showing up in their marketing budgets.

According to an emarketer study, 94% of advertisers say they’re worried about the impact of tariffs and inflationary pressures on their operations, with many planning  budget cuts of 6-10%. The automotive, electronics, and retail industries are feeling the most strain. With these major categories pulling back, it’s no surprise that overall growth forecasts have softened, with most analysts now predicting only modest single-digit gains by the end of 2025.

How Advertisers Are Adapting

In this environment, brands are getting smarter and more selective about where they invest. There’s a clear shift toward performance-driven advertising, in fact, 35% of advertisers say they’re increasing their budgets for campaigns tied directly to measurable ROI.

That means every impression, click, and conversion is under greater scrutiny. Advertisers want transparency, efficiency, and results, and they’re channeling their dollars into formats and platforms that can prove value.

What Publishers Can Do to Stay Resilient

The silver lining is that publishers have plenty of ways to stay strong, and even grow, during a tougher ad market. Here are some strategies that can make a difference:

Stick with programmatic

‍Programmatic remains one of the most efficient ways to monetize inventory. It provides flexibility, scalability, and access to a wide range of demand sources which are all critical advantages when budgets are tight and every dollar counts.

Advertisers are also looking for real-time optimization, so programmatic’s ability to adjust bids and targeting on the fly is more valuable than ever. This adaptability makes sure that campaigns continue to perform efficiently, even as market conditions shift. For publishers, it means more consistent revenue opportunities and better fill rates, all while maintaining control over pricing and placements.‍

Tap into direct deals

‍Direct deals remain a powerful tool for publishers to secure stable, high-value revenue even when the broader market is not doing so great. By establishing one-to-one relationships with advertisers, publishers can offer premium inventory, customized targeting, and guaranteed placements, all of which are increasingly attractive to brands looking for efficiency and measurable ROI.

Direct deals give you greater control over pricing, ad quality, and campaign pacing. When you combine them with programmatic and performance-driven strategies, you create a balanced, resilient approach that satisfies both advertiser goals and audience expectations. Managing direct deals can be time-consuming though, so we recommend working with a partner that can handle the nitty-gritty for you. Hint: that’s us.

Be agile

‍Offer ad experiences that align with both performance goals and a range of campaign budgets. We know it’s not always easy for publishers to maintain that level of flexibility while also managing the day-to-day demands of running a site. That’s why strong account management makes such a difference. Having an AdOps expert in your corner means your ad strategy stays optimized without adding more to your workload.

Equally important is investing in UX-focused technology that keeps the user experience front and center, even as you test, tweak, and refine your ad setup. The right tools can help you balance performance and usability, so you can deliver results for advertisers without compromising your audience’s experience.

Enable more personalized experiences

‍Personalization is now a necessity, not a nice-to-have. Publishers who give advertisers the ability to reach high-value, interested audiences can drive stronger engagement and better results.

At Publisher Collective, we can help you do that. Our Collective model bridges the gap between advertisers and publishers, using insights from our category collectives, covering interests like gaming, health, sports, and more. By combining vertical expertise with a mix of zero, first, and second-party data from high-engagement sites, we create a ready-made, highly relevant audience pool that helps advertisers engage smarter and boosts monetization for publishers.

Diversify your revenue streams

‍A key strategy for long-term stability is adding more revenue streams to your existing monetization strategy. What does this look like?

• Subscriptions and Memberships: Provide premium content, ad-free experiences, or exclusive perks that give readers a reason to invest in your site.
• E-commerce and Affiliate Sales: Tap into your audience’s interests by recommending products, offering affiliate links, or selling branded merchandise directly.
• Sponsored Content and Partnerships: Work with brands to create high-quality, relevant content that benefits both your audience and your revenue.

By diversifying your revenue streams you’ll be less dependent on the fluctuations in the ad market and you’ll build audience loyalty, both crucial for sustainable growth.

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While 2025’s ad market is definitely feeling the effects of tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty, it’s also pushing the industry toward smarter, more accountable advertising. Publishers who stay flexible, data-driven, and connected to advertiser goals will be the ones who come out stronger on the other side. Let us help you get there! Get in touch with our team today.

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